The EUR/USD currency pair is currently experiencing a bearish trend, with a five-swing structure from the July 2 high indicating further weakness. This structure is part of a larger incomplete bearish sequence that began in January 2026. The projected target zone for this sequence is between 1.076 and 1.117, which is defined by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 27 high. This technical framework provides a clear indication of the potential downward movement.
The five-swing decline from the July 2 high is unfolding as a diagonal structure, with wave (i) ending at 1.139 and a corrective rally in wave (ii) terminating at 1.146. The pair then resumed its downward trajectory in wave (iii), which is further subdivided into another five-wave impulse. Wave (i) within this impulse ended at 1.138, while wave (ii) retraced to 1.145. These developments confirm the ongoing bearish bias and suggest that the decline is still active and incomplete.
The pivot at 1.147 is a critical level, as a rally should fail in 3 or 7 swings if this level holds. A decisive break below the June 24 low at 1.1324 is required to eliminate the possibility of a double correction. This would confirm the bearish trend and potentially lead to further downside movement.
The EUR/USD 60-minute Elliott Wave chart provides a visual representation of this technical analysis, showing the five-wave structure and the corrective rallies within the larger bearish sequence. This chart is a valuable tool for traders and analysts to monitor the currency pair's movements and make informed decisions.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a bearish trend, with a five-swing structure from the July 2 high indicating further weakness. The projected target zone and the Elliott Wave chart provide a clear technical framework for anticipating the next leg lower. Traders and analysts should closely monitor these levels and make informed decisions based on this technical analysis.
