In the world of Chinese politics, Xi Jinping's 'self-revolution' campaign has become a fascinating and complex phenomenon. This article delves into the heart of this movement, exploring its implications and the potential future it may shape for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and, by extension, China itself.
The Rise of Xi's Forever Purge
Xi's tenure as China's leader has been marked by an unprecedented purge within the CCP and the People's Liberation Army. The scale is staggering, with millions of cadres and even senior leaders falling from grace. While the initial focus was on tackling corruption, Xi's campaign has evolved into a comprehensive effort to reshape the very fabric of the party.
The standard narrative suggests that Xi's purges are a power play, a means to sideline rivals and consolidate his authority. And indeed, this has been a significant aspect, especially in the early years of his leadership. The takedown of high-ranking officials tied to his predecessors helped Xi gain public support and centralize decision-making, setting the stage for his indefinite rule.
However, this explanation is simplistic. Xi's discipline campaign is not just about political maneuvering; it's a transformative project aimed at redefining the CCP's governance model.
Revolutionizing the CCP: A New Governance Theory
Xi, the 'princeling' son of a revolutionary hero, is leading a 'self-revolution' within the CCP. This revolution is not just about weeding out corruption; it's about using discipline as a governing principle. Internal rules, ideological education, inspections, and high-level purges are all tools in Xi's arsenal to create a more effective and durable party.
If successful, Xi's self-revolution could make the CCP an institution capable of ruling China indefinitely, regardless of who is at the helm. It's a bold vision, and one that carries significant risks.
The Unfinished Project and Its Implications
Xi's calls for self-revolution have intensified, especially as he prepares for the 21st Party Congress, where he aims to secure an unprecedented fourth term. The deeper this revolution is embedded, the more apparent its inherent dangers become: bureaucratic paralysis, a depleted elite, and the potential for a highly centralized discipline system to become unmanageable post-Xi.
The Challenge of Controlling Autocracies
Autocracies have long struggled with controlling their bureaucracies, lacking the external checks and balances of democratic systems. The CCP's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) has historically been relatively weak, despite its formal powers. During the post-Mao era, corruption was tolerated, lubricating the wheels of rapid economic growth.
Xi's rise to power coincided with a growing awareness of the threats posed by corruption. The Sichuan earthquake of 2008, which exposed the poor quality of school buildings, and revelations about the wealth of senior leaders' families, highlighted the urgent need for reform.
From Purge to Process: Institutionalizing Discipline
In Xi's second term, the nature of the campaign shifted. While high-level purges continued, the focus expanded to lower-level cadres. The establishment of the National Supervisory Commission in 2018 brought all public servants under the CCDI's oversight, merging anticorruption functions into a single party-state apparatus.
This institutionalization of discipline has led to a more embedded and comprehensive system, with resident discipline offices and inspectors covering all central agencies and state ministries. The result? A significant increase in the prosecution of officials, especially at the grassroots level.
The Philosophy of Self-Revolution
Xi's self-revolution is about more than catching corrupt officials or eliminating rivals. It's about ensuring compliance with Xi's broader agenda and tightening control over the bureaucracy. Most CCDI punishments are not high-profile 'tiger' cases but low-level 'fly' cases, designed to reshape behavior.
Xi's self-revolution is also about expanding the party's normative authority. The proliferation of ideological campaigns under Xi has helped to reinforce the party's ideological purity and control.
The Existential Imperative: Avoiding the Fate of the USSR
For Xi, self-revolution is an existential necessity. He fears the 'corrosive influence' of vested interests and privileged groups, which he sees as a threat to the party's long-term survival. The collapse of the Soviet Union remains a cautionary tale for Xi, who believes that poor governance and a lack of belief in the system led to its demise.
Xi draws lessons from Chinese history as well, quoting the poet Du Mu's essay on the fall of the Qin dynasty. He sees corruption, decadence, and rebellion as the ultimate threats to a dynasty's longevity. Self-revolution, for Xi, is the answer to avoiding this ancient pattern of rise and decline.
The Costs and Benefits of Control
While Xi's self-revolution has led to measurable successes, such as reduced petty bribery and improved government effectiveness, it has also created significant disadvantages. Tighter centralization and harsher penalties can lead to risk-averse local officials, focusing on documentary compliance rather than practical problem-solving.
This can result in a rigid and less adaptive policy process, with cadres less willing to experiment and more inclined to follow orders mechanically. The information problem is also a concern, as fear of punishment discourages honest feedback and quick action on emerging risks.
A Substitute for Succession Planning
Xi's sense of unfinished business, coupled with his desire to stay on as leader, suggests that self-revolution is his substitute for normal succession planning. He is trying to create a party that is disciplined enough to survive without him, a party that can enforce central priorities even in his absence.
However, this approach carries risks. It may leave behind a system that functions optimally only with a strongman like Xi at its center. The longer he waits to prepare a successor, the more challenging it will be for the next leader to gain the necessary authority.
A Rival Operating System: Challenging Western Expectations
Xi's discipline campaign is part of a broader effort to build a rival operating system that defies Western expectations. He believes that the CCP does not need elections or rule of law to remain effective and legitimate. Internal discipline and self-correction, in his view, can generate enough accountability and success to sustain its rule.
This challenge to the long-standing assumption that authoritarian systems must either democratize or decay has practical implications for policymakers in Washington and other capitals. The discipline apparatus will continue to produce headlines, but interpreting these as signs of a troubled regime may be a mistake.
Xi's self-revolution could also resonate abroad, with Beijing promoting it as a model to emulate. The success of this model could shape the future of authoritarian governance globally.
Conclusion: A Legacy of Strength and Weakness
Xi's self-revolution is a bold and ambitious project, one that could leave a lasting impact on the CCP and China. If successful, it could create a more institutionalized and effective party, capable of enforcing central priorities. However, it could also leave behind a system that is overly reliant on a strongman leader, a system that may struggle to adapt and respond creatively to future challenges.
As Xi continues his self-revolution, the world watches with fascination and curiosity, wondering what the future holds for this ancient civilization and its modern political experiment.
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